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Will Israel Return to War in Gaza?
Kibbutz member Yael Raz Lachyani, 49, walks by the fence of Kibbutz Nahal Oz in southern Israel, Oct. 28, 2025. Hamas gunmen killed 15 people from Nahal Oz and took eight more hostage to Gaza on Oct. 7, 2023. Photo: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun
Before beginning my “deep dive” into Gaza, here’s the long and short of it:
- Israel, the United States, and Arab powers in the region all want the war in Gaza to end; but
- every element of peace, including international stabilization forces and reconstruction is impossible until Hamas disarms and dismantles its power structure; and
- Hamas is ideologically incapable of doing so voluntarily.
All of this leads to an inescapable conclusion: the path to peace may very well lie on the other side of renewed combat.
Here’s the full story:
US President Donald Trump, speaking before the Israeli Knesset on October 13, announced the end of the war in Gaza and the “historic dawn of a new Middle East.”
All remaining live Israeli hostages held by Hamas returned home, and the Israeli people responded with an elation that continues to this day. Yet that euphoric moment marked only the beginning of a train of problems, obstacles, and deadly battles that seem to be growing only worse over time.
This doesn’t mean the end of Trump’s self-named “Great Peace,” but merely the beginning of a very Middle Eastern process.
During the two weeks since Trump’s declaration of peace, Hamas failed to return the bodies of many of the deceased hostages as it had agreed to, launched attacks against IDF positions resulting in several injuries and deaths, and brutally executed dozens of Palestinians, many of them publicly, while blindfolded and kneeling in the street.
For its part, Israel responded with limited but severe air strikes. Nonetheless Trump, Israel and Hamas all continue to insist that a ceasefire is still in effect, a sentiment that Trump summed up succinctly, “They [Hamas] killed an Israeli soldier. So the Israelis hit back. And they should hit back… Nothing is going to jeopardize the ceasefire.”
So it seems we have a ceasefire – but one that includes, well … firing.
Given how the Middle East works, returning to combat may actually be a necessary step toward achieving genuine, regional peace.
Trump’s “Great Peace,” aka “the Deal,” is meant to occur in two phases. Phase 1 involves:
- an immediate ceasefire,
- the return of all Israeli hostages (living and dead),
- a partial pullback of IDF forces, and finally, the release of nearly 2,000 Palestinian security prisoners from Israeli jails, including many convicted and high ranking terror operatives.
Phase 2, which has yet to be fully negotiated, is meant to include:
- Hamas completely disarming and giving up control over Gaza,
- further IDF withdrawals,
- and the implementation of some kind of international governing force that will oversee reconstruction.
Strictly speaking, we are still in Phase 1: Israel has fulfilled its obligations, but Hamas continues to hold the bodies of deceased Israeli hostages, which is of high emotional importance to Israelis. Hamas insists that the bodies are hard to find, yet Israeli intelligence claims that the terror organization has custody of most of the remains. The Israeli claim was evidenced the other day by drone footage which showed Hamas operatives removing an Israeli body from a building, burying it under rubble, and then calling the Red Cross to report their “discovery.”
Trump threatened on October 25 to take some kind of action against Hamas if it did not return the Israeli bodies within 48 hours, yet that deadline has passed, and bodies continue to return only in a trickle.
Phase 1 problems notwithstanding, the disarmament of Hamas presents a critical barrier to Phase 2.
In the wake of October 7, 2023, the largest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust, Israel will not tolerate a Hamas controlled enclave on its border. In a further obstacle, neither neighboring Arab countries nor local Palestinian clans will take responsibility for Gaza’s future if that means having to fight against an armed and active Hamas.
Yet the terror group is already refusing to disarm, saying (at best) that the agreement is ambiguous, and in some cases, expressing outright refusal.
Both Jerusalem and Washington seem quite aware of this sticking point: speaking from the White House last month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed disarmament with the warning, “This can be done the easy way or it can be done the hard way, but it will be done.”
President Trump later echoed the sentiment more bluntly, saying, “If Hamas continues to kill people in Gaza, which was not the Deal, we will have no choice but to go in and kill them.” Trump added further threats against the terror group in recent days, including, “If they don’t disarm, we will disarm them. And it will happen quickly and perhaps violently.”
Some headlines claimed that the United States is pressuring Israel against violating the ceasefire, including comical terms like “Bibi-sitting,” yet the rhetoric coming out of Washington is actually far more aggressive than that coming from Jerusalem. According to non-public sources inside the Israeli government, much of the pressure against resuming combat stems not from America, but from Israel’s desire to return the remains of as many deceased hostages as possible before engaging in an operation that might put them forever beyond reach.
Indeed, events on the ground seem to demonstrate a high degree of coordination between the two countries — a coordination based on the shared understanding that peace requires appropriate enforcement, and that it may prove impossible to remove Hamas’ influence by any means other than combat.
There is precedent for this approach.
Beginning with the famous “pager” operation last year, Israel conducted a series of strikes that devastated the Hezbollah terror organization in Lebanon, finally resulting in a November 2024 “ceasefire” agreement. Under the terms of this “ceasefire,” Israel retained the right to continue firing against Hezbollah as necessary, and has carried out several hundred strikes since that time. Both the government of Lebanon as well as the United States have generally accepted these strikes as being not only consistent with the ceasefire agreement, but also a necessary step toward building a peaceful Lebanese government, safe from Hezbollah’s violent control.
Another example began last April, when Trump gave Iran a 60 day deadline to negotiate the dismantling of its nuclear program. The deadline expired on June 11, and was followed immediately by a devastating Israeli air operation, which culminated in the famous American B-2 bombardment of Iran’s most deeply buried nuclear facilities. The result was a quick and decisive end to what Trump named “The Twelve Day War,” followed by a period of sustained quiet, though Iran is rumored to be rebuilding its capabilities.
The current phase in Gaza is reminiscent of the 60 day Iran negotiation: there is a slim possibility that Hamas might agree to disarm and depart peacefully, but if not, the parties have been clear that combat remains not only an option, but a functional tool for achieving eventual peace.
It is relatively rare that an aggressive dictatorship transforms into a safe and prosperous neighbor, but there are at least two historical examples: Germany and Japan after World War II. In both cases, the previous regime had to be completely defeated and entirely disarmed before reconstruction, much less any hope of a better future. Can one imagine that today’s prosperous, modern Germany would exist if the allies had given the Nazis a role in reconstruction? Can one imagine international partners physically entering Germany to help govern and rebuild, while under the threat of an armed and active Nazi regime?
Until October 13, Hamas held living Israeli hostages — they were enduring abuse, starvation, and rapidly running out of time. Under these circumstances, Israel entered a deal to return the live hostages immediately, while delaying the deconstruction of Hamas, and the reconstruction of Gaza, until later. Yet in many other respects, the situation in Gaza parallels post-war Germany: before the region can hope to imagine a better future, the existing regime must be disarmed, dismantled, and dismissed. The fate of the entire Middle East, and Trump’s “Great Peace,” depend on it.
Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck, an organization dedicated to deepening public conversation through robust research studies and public speaking.
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Iran Opposes Grossi’s UN Secretary-General Candidacy, Accuses Him of Failing to Uphold International Law
UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi holds a press conference on the opening day of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) quarterly Board of Governors meeting in Vienna, Austria, Sept. 8, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Elisabeth Mandl
Iran has publicly opposed International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Rafael Grossi’s potential appointment as UN Secretary-General next year, accusing him of failing to uphold international law by not condemning US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites during the 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June.
During a UN Security Council meeting on Monday, Iran’s Ambassador to the UN, Amir Saeid Iravani, sharply criticized Grossi, calling him unfit” to serve as UN Secretary-General next year, Iranian media reported.
“A candidate who has deliberately failed to uphold the UN Charter — or to condemn unlawful military attacks against safeguarded, peaceful nuclear facilities … undermines confidence in his ability to serve as a faithful guardian of the charter and to discharge his duties independently, impartially, and without political bias or fear of powerful states,” the Iranian diplomat said.
With UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ term ending in December next year, member states have already begun nominating candidates to take over the role ahead of the expected 2026 election.
Since the start of the war in Gaza, Israel’s relationship with Guterres has spiraled downward, reaching a low point last year when then-Foreign Minister Israel Katz labeled the UN “antisemitic and anti-Israeli” and declared Guterres persona non grata after the top UN official failed to condemn Tehran for its ballistic missile attack against the Jewish state.
Last week, Argentina officially nominated Grossi to succeed Guterres as the next UN Secretary-General.
To be elected, a nominee must first secure the support of at least nine members of the UN Security Council and avoid a veto from any of its five permanent members — the United States, China, Russia, the United Kingdom, and France.
Afterward, the UN General Assembly votes, with a simple majority needed to confirm the organization’s next leader.
As head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog since 2019, Grossi has consistently urged Iran to provide transparency on its nuclear program and cooperate with the agency, efforts the Islamist regime has repeatedly rejected and obstructed.
Despite Iran’s claims that its nuclear program is solely for civilian purposes rather than weapons development, Western powers have said there is no “credible civilian justification” for the country’s nuclear activity, arguing it “gives Iran the capability to rapidly produce sufficient fissile material for multiple nuclear weapons.”
With prospects for renewed negotiations or nuclear cooperation dwindling, Iran has been intensifying efforts to rebuild its air and defense capabilities decimated during the 12-day war with Israel.
On Monday, Mohammad Eslami, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), declared that the IAEA has no authority to inspect sites targeted during the June war, following Grossi’s renewed calls for Tehran to allow inspections of its nuclear sites and expand cooperation with the agency.
Iran has also announced plans to expand its nuclear cooperation with Russia and advance the construction of new nuclear power plants, as both countries continue to deepen their bilateral relations.
According to AEOI spokesperson Behrouz Kamalvandi, one nuclear power plant is currently operational, while other two are under construction, with new contracts signed during a recent high-level meeting in Moscow.
Kamalvandi also said Iran plans to build four nuclear power plants in the country’s southern region as part of its long-term partnership with Russia.
During a joint press conference in Moscow on Tuesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated Iran’s commitment to defending the country’s “legal nuclear rights” under the now-defunct 2015 nuclear deal, noting that Tehran’s nuclear policies have remained within the international legal framework.
Iran’s growing ties with Russia, particularly in nuclear cooperation, have deepened in recent years as both countries face mounting Western sanctions and seek to expand their influence in opposition to Western powers.
Russia has not only helped Iran build its nuclear program but also consistently defended the country’s “nuclear rights” on the global stage, while opposing the imposition of renewed economic sanctions.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has described the reinstatement of UN sanctions against Iran as a “disgrace to diplomacy.”
In an interview with the Islamic Republic of Iran News Network (IRINN), Lavrov accused European powers of attempting to blame Tehran for the collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal, despite what he described as Iran’s compliance with the agreement.
Prior to the 12-day war, the IAEA flagged a series of Iranian violations of the deal.
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Eurovision Host Says It Will Not Drown Out Any Boos During Israel’s Performance
ORF executive producer Michael Kroen attends a press conference about the Eurovision Song Contest in Vienna, Austria, Dec. 16, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Lisa Leutner
The host broadcaster of the next Eurovision Song Contest, Austria’s ORF, will not ban the Palestinian flag from the audience or drown out booing during Israel’s performance as has happened at previous shows, organizers said on Tuesday.
The 70th edition of the contest in May will have just 35 entries, the smallest number of participants since 2003, after five national broadcasters including those of Spain, Ireland, and the Netherlands said they would boycott the show in protest at Israel’s participation.
What is usually a celebration of national diversity, pop music, and high camp has become embroiled in diplomatic strife, with those boycotting saying it would be unconscionable to take part given the number of civilians killed in Gaza during Israel’s military campaign following the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, invasion of and massacre across southern Israel.
“We will allow all official flags that exist in the world, if they comply with the law and are in a certain form – size, security risks, etc.,” the show’s executive producer, Michael Kroen, told a news conference organized by ORF.
“We will not sugarcoat anything or avoid showing what is happening, because our task is to show things as they are,” Kroen said.
AUSTRIA SUPPORTED ISRAEL PARTICIPATING
The broadcaster will not drown out the sound of any booing from the crowd, as happened this year during Israel’s performance, ORF’s director of programming Stefanie Groiss-Horowitz said.
“We won’t play artificial applause over it at any point,” she said.
Israel’s 2025 entrant, Yuval Raphael, was at the Nova music festival that was a target of the Hamas-led attack. The CEO of Israeli broadcaster KAN had likened the efforts to exclude Israel in 2026 to a form of “cultural boycott.”
ORF and the Austrian government were among the biggest supporters of Israel participating over the objections of countries including Iceland and Slovenia, which will also boycott the next contest in protest. ORF Director General Roland Weissmann visited Israel in November to show his support.
This year’s show drew around 166 million viewers, according to the European Broadcasting Union, more than the roughly 128 million who Nielsen estimates watched the Super Bowl.
The war in Gaza began after Hamas-led terrorists killed 1,200 people, most of them civilians, and seized 251 hostages in an attack on southern Israel.
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Antisemitism Allowed to Fester in Australia, Says Daughter of Wounded Holocaust Survivor
Victoria Teplitsky, daughter of a Holocaust survivor who was wounded at the Bondi shootings, stands at a floral memorial in honor of the victims of the mass shooting targeting a Hanukkah celebration on Sunday, at Bondi Beach, in Sydney, Australia, Dec. 16, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Jeremy Piper
Government authorities have not done enough to stamp out hatred of Jews in Australia, which has allowed it to fester in the aftermath of Oct. 7, said the daughter of a Holocaust survivor who was wounded at the Bondi shootings on Sunday.
Victoria Teplitsky, 53, a retired childcare center owner, said that the father and son who allegedly went on a 10-minute shooting spree that killed 15 people had been “taught to hate,” which was a bigger factor in the attack than access to guns.
“It’s not the fact that those two people had a gun. It’s the fact that hatred has been allowed to fester against the Jewish minority in Australia,” she told Reuters in an interview.
“We are angry at our government because it comes from the top, and they should have stood up for our community with strength. And they should have squashed the hatred rather than kind of letting it slide,” she said.
“We’ve been ignored. We feel like, are we not Australian enough? Do we not matter to our government?”
The attackers fired upon hundreds of people at a Jewish festival during a roughly 10-minute killing spree, forcing people to flee and take shelter before both were shot by police.
RISING ANTISEMITIC ATTACKS
Antisemitic incidents have been rising in Australia since the war in Gaza erupted after Palestinian terrorist group Hamas killed 1,200 Israelis in an attack on Oct. 7, 2023.
A rise in such incidents in the past sixteen months prompted the head of the nation’s main intelligence agency to declare that antisemitism was his top priority in terms of threat.
“This was not a surprise to the Jewish community. We warned the government of this many, many times over,” Teplitsky said.
“We’ve had synagogues that have been graffitied, graffiti everywhere, and we’ve had synagogues that have been bombed,” she added, referring to a 2024 arson attack in Melbourne in which no one was killed.
Teplitsky’s father Semyon, 86, bled heavily after being shot in the leg, and now is facing several operations as doctors piece bone back together with cement, then remove the cement from the leg, which he still may lose, she said.
“He’s in good spirits, but he’s also very angry. Angry that this happened, that this was allowed to happen in Australia, the country that he took his children to, to be safe, to be away from antisemitism, to be away from Jew hatred.”
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese “did nothing” to curb antisemitism.
Albanese repeated on Tuesday Australia‘s support for a two-state solution. Anti-Israel, pro-Hamas protests have been common in Australia since Israel launched its offensive in Gaza.
At a press briefing on Monday, Albanese read through a list of actions his government had taken, including criminalizing hate speech and incitement to violence and a ban on the Nazi salute. He also pledged to extend funding for physical security for Jewish community groups.