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America’s “Trump Doctrine” Will Reshape International Relations
By HENRY SREBRNIK Donald Trump’s return to the White House marks the beginning of a new era on the global stage and is expected to bring significant changes to the international balance of power.
Trump capitalized on a sense of discontent that had been building since the end of the Cold War in the 1990s and was galvanized by the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that followed the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001.
Many of his advisers are part of a foreign policy movement on the Republican Party right who call themselves “restrainers” and are against what they consider America’s 21st century involvement in “forever wars.” For them, the neoconservative interventionists have overextended the country’s commitment abroad.
President Trump’s policy in his second term will continue to concentrate on distinct American interests. His America First emphasis means Trump is likely to reduce involvement in international institutions, while demanding that NATO and other allies take greater responsibility for their own defence.
The Middle East today features dangers and opportunities that were not present when he first took office eight years ago. The greatest danger remains Iran’s advances toward acquiring nuclear weapons. The best opportunities have emerged from Israel’s decimation of Hezbollah and Hamas, its successful attacks on Iran, and the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria.
A year and a half ago, Iran’s foreign policy could possibly have been considered enormously successful. But since then, Israel has turned the tables. Hamas will not again pose a serious military threat to Israel. The Israelis have wiped out Hezbollah’s leadership and given Lebanon a chance to reclaim its sovereignty. And Assad’s regime is gone.
Weakening Iran will be a priority. Trump is expected to intensify the “maximum pressure” policy on Iran, including imposing additional severe sanctions and making a concentrated effort to ensure their enforcement. To stop Tehran’s nuclear ambitions may also require the credible threat of military action. He is likely to seek to strengthen the regional front against Iran, including close cooperation with Israel and the Gulf states.
Trump’s proposal that the United States “take over” and rebuild Gaza while its residents live elsewhere is far-fetched. But it might better be seen as a reflection of the fact that no realistic plan for Gaza exists. Since 2005, when the Israelis withdrew from Gaza, Washington has tried to buy off Hamas – and this culminated in the 2023 attacks. While the administration may continue to oppose Israel’s annexation of the West Bank, any future participation of Hamas in Palestinian self-government is unacceptable.
Trump will continue efforts to stabilize Lebanon, particularly following the election of Washington’s preferred candidate, Joseph Aoun, as its president. The U.S. will demand that the Lebanese armed forces prevent a renewed Hezbollah presence in the south and guard Lebanon’s borders to stop Iranian arms supplies from entering.
As for Turkey, relations may continue to be contentious, particularly regarding Ankara’s antagonism to the Kurds in northern Syria, its hostility toward Israel and support for Hamas, and growing closeness to Russia and China. Washington might try to influence the new Syrian regime, which, after all, seeks to consolidate its power and present itself as striving for a more Western-oriented approach. It will also be U.S. policy to maintain Washington’s partnership with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces until the militia’s status and future safety are secured.
Finally, Trump’s policies will involve expanding the Abraham Accords, a highlight of his first term, by having Israel focus on advancing normalization with Saudi Arabia. Trump has also again designated the Houthis in Yemen as a foreign terrorist organization, which President Biden had revoked.
The confrontation with China will remain a central focus of Trump’s global policy, particularly in economic and technological aspects. Trump has sought to confront China over what he says is a number of economic abuses: intellectual property theft, currency manipulation, export and other subsidies, and economic espionage. He says aggressive action is required to protect American workers and to reduce the United States’ large bilateral trade deficit.
Tensions over Taiwan will continue to threaten regional stability in East Asia. It is likely that Trump does not want to be perceived as abandoning Taiwan and U.S. commitments to the island, but at the same time, he does not want Taiwan to drag the United States into a military conflict. He has observed that “Taiwan is 9,500 miles away” from the United States, while it’s “68 miles away from China.”
Trump has long been critical of American support for Kyiv and has moved to end Russia’s war against Ukraine. His statements suggest that he is not necessarily committed to preserving Ukrainian sovereignty within its internationally recognized borders and may be open to a deal that allows Russia to maintain its presence in occupied Ukrainian territories as well as legitimizing its possession of Crimea. He has told Europe that it cannot depend indefinitely on the United States and must do more to aid Ukraine.
He also wants Ukraine to supply the United States with rare earth minerals as a form of payment for financially assisting the country’s war efforts against Russia.
The world will be a very different place over the next four years. After all, as one newspaper put it, Trump was elected to “be a wrecking ball to the Beltway elites.”
Henry Srebrnik is a professor of political science at the University of Prince Edward Island.
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US Intelligence Indicates China Preparing Weapons Shipment to Iran
The Pentagon building is seen in Arlington, Virginia, U.S. October 9, 2020. Photo: REUTERS/Carlos Barria
US intelligence indicates China is preparing to deliver new air defense systems to Iran within the next few weeks, CNN reported late on Friday, citing three people familiar with recent intelligence assessments.
The network said there are indications that Beijing is working to route the shipments through third countries to mask their origin.
The US State Department, the White House, the Chinese embassy in Washington and China’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.
Beijing is preparing to transfer shoulder-fired anti-air missile systems known as MANPADs, CNN said, citing sources it did not name.
The US and Iran are set to hold high-level negotiations on Saturday in Pakistan’s capital Islamabad, seeking ways to end their six-week-old war.
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US-Iran Talks Begin, Trump Says Hormuz Strait ‘Clearing’ Underway
Pakistani flags flutter near the Parliament House, as delegations from the United States and Iran are expected to hold high-stakes talks, in Islamabad, Pakistan, April 11, 2026. REUTERS/Akhtar Soomro
US and Iranian negotiators held their highest-level talks in half a century on Saturday in Pakistan to try to end their war even as President Donald Trump said his military had sunk Tehran’s mine-layers and was clearing the Strait of Hormuz.
“We’re now starting the process of clearing out the Strait of Hormuz as a favor to Countries all over the World,” Trump posted, saying 28 Iranian mine-dropping vessels had been destroyed.
Iran’s state-affiliated Nournews called that “false news.”
Amid conflicting reports, Iranian state TV added that no US ships had crossed the strait, a crucial transit point for global energy supplies that Tehran has effectively blocked but Trump has vowed to reopen.
The waterway, which lies on Iran’s southern coast, was one of the main points on the agenda in Islamabad for the first direct US-Iranian talks in more than a decade and the highest-level discussions since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Trump’s Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner flew in on Saturday and met Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi for two hours before a rest, according to a source from mediator Pakistan.
The Iranian delegation had arrived on Friday dressed in black in mourning for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and others killed in the six-week war. They carried shoes and bags of some students killed during the US bombing of a school next to a military compound, the Iranian government said.
“There were mood swings from the two sides and the temperature went up and down during the meeting,” said another Pakistani source of the first round of talks.
PROGRESS OF NEGOTIATIONS UNCLEAR
The war has sent global oil prices soaring, killed thousands of people and seen unprecedented hits on Gulf Arab states.
Amid conflicting versions from officials and media in both nations, the US and Iranian sides appeared to remain far apart.
Before the talks began, a senior Iranian source told Reuters the US had agreed to release frozen assets in Qatar and other foreign banks. But a US official swiftly denied that.
As well as release of assets abroad, Tehran is demanding control of the Strait of Hormuz, payment of war reparations and a ceasefire across the region including in Lebanon, according to Iranian state TV and officials.
Trump’s stated goals have varied during the campaign, but as a minimum he wants free passage for global shipping through the strait and the crippling of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program to ensure it cannot produce an atomic bomb.
US ally Israel, which joined the February 28 attacks on Iran that launched the war, has also been bombing Tehran-backed Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon, killing nearly 2,000 people.
Israel and the US have said Lebanon is not part of the Iran-US ceasefire.
Mutual distrust is high.
“We will negotiate with our finger on the trigger,” Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said on state TV.
“While we are open to talks, we are also fully aware of the lack of trust; therefore, Iran’s diplomatic team is entering this process with maximum caution.”
Tehran’s agenda includes aiming to collect transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about 20 percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.
The biggest ever disruption there has fed inflation and slowed the global economy, with an impact expected to last for months even if negotiators succeed in reopening the strait.
Nevertheless, three Liberian- and Chinese-flagged supertankers did pass through the strait on Saturday, shipping data showed, marking what appeared to be the first vessels to exit the Gulf since last week’s US-Iran ceasefire.
STRIKES ON LEBANON
Strikes on southern Lebanon continued on Saturday morning, Lebanese state media said. Reuters reporters heard an Israeli surveillance drone flying over the capital Beirut from Friday night into the next morning and warplanes broke the sound barrier twice over the city.
Hezbollah announced it had conducted several military operations against Israeli positions on Saturday, both within Lebanese territory and in northern Israel.
Israeli and Lebanese officials plan talks in the US on Tuesday.
For the US-Iran talks, Islamabad, a city of just over 2 million people, was under unprecedented lockdown with thousands of paramilitary personnel and army troops on the streets.
Pakistan’s mediating role is a remarkable transformation for a nation that was a diplomatic outcast a year ago.
“This was a world war that Pakistan stopped. It played a big role and we should appreciate it,” said dry cleaner Nasir Khan Abbasi at a market in Islamabad. “I really like this and I feel great that Pakistan’s name is shining in the world.”
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Middle East War to Cut Growth, Deliver Cascading Impact, World Bank Chief Says
FILE PHOTO: World Bank President Ajay Banga gives remarks during a forum held at the Atlantic Council building in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 7, 2026. REUTERS/Aaron Schwartz/File Photo
The war in the Middle East will have a cascading impact on the global economy, even if a ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump takes hold, World Bank President Ajay Banga told Reuters in an interview on Friday.
And the damage will be far deeper if the ceasefire fails and the conflict escalates, he said.
Banga on Tuesday said global growth could be lowered by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage point in a baseline scenario, with an early end to the war, and by as much as 1 percentage point if it endures. Inflation could increase by 200 to 300 basis points, with a much higher impact – of up to 0.9 percentage point – if the war continues, he said.
The World Bank’s baseline estimate now projects growth in emerging markets and developing economies of 3.65% in 2026, compared to 4% in October, dropping as low as 2.6% in an adverse scenario with a longer-lasting war. Inflation in those countries was now forecast to hit 4.9% in 2026, up from the previous estimate of 3%. The extreme scenario could see inflation rising as high as 6.7%, according to estimates viewed by Reuters.
The war, which has killed thousands of people across the Middle East, has sent the price of oil up by 50% while disrupting supplies of oil, gas, fertilizer, helium and other goods, as well as tourism and air travel.
The two-week ceasefire announced by Trump appears tenuous, with Israel and Iran continuing strikes. Iran said on Friday that blocked Iranian assets must be released and a ceasefire must take hold in Lebanon before US-Iran talks, scheduled for Saturday in Pakistan, can proceed. Trump said that US warships were being reloaded with ammunition in case the talks failed.
“The question really is, does this current peace and the negotiations that are going to be happening this weekend – will this lead to a lasting peace and then a reopening of the Strait (of Hormuz)?” said Banga. “If it doesn’t lead to that, and if conflict were to break out again, would that have an even larger impact, or longer-term impact on energy infrastructure?”
Banga said the world’s largest development bank was already in discussions with some developing countries, including small island states with no natural energy resources, about tapping funds from existing programs under “crisis response windows.”
The World Bank’s crisis toolkit allows countries to tap previously approved but not yet disbursed funds without additional board approvals, increasing flexibility.
But Banga said the bank was cautioning countries to avoid setting up energy subsidies that they could not afford, which would trigger even bigger problems in the future.
“I worry about making sure that they can come through this crisis, targeting what they need to do, but not doing anything that further deteriorates that fiscal space,” he said.
Many developing countries also have high debt levels and interest rates remain high, which constrains their ability to borrow money to fund measures to respond to the jump in energy costs and other goods caused by the war.
The crisis has put a fresh spotlight on the need for countries to diversify energy supplies and boost self-sufficiency, Banga said. The World Bank last June ended a longstanding ban on funding nuclear energy projects as part of a push to meet rising electricity needs.
Nigeria, which had long faced problems, stood to benefit from a $20 billion investment made by the Dangote Group in refineries, which had actually increased output during the war, and was now supplying aviation fuel to neighboring countries.
“Nigeria should be breathing a sigh of relief. They’ve built up the ability to have energy security for themselves through that huge investment,” he said. “It’s actually a really good example of the right thing being done in terms of energy self-sufficiency for them, but also for their neighbors.”
The World Bank is also working closely with Mozambique, another African country, to expand its energy production capabilities in both natural gas and hydropower.
The World Bank had many energy products in the pipeline, Banga said, noting that talks were under way with some countries looking to extend the life of their fleets of nuclear reactors, and others keen to move into nuclear power.
“If you don’t get nuclear and hydro and geothermal going at scale, along with wind and solar, they will end up doing more with traditional fuels, and nobody really wants that,” he said.