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The War in Gaza and the Implications for Energy in the Eastern Mediterranean
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett with Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Jerusalem on Dec. 7, 2021. Photo: Amos Ben-Gershom / Government Press Office
The war with Hamas in Gaza, and the clashes in the north against Hezbollah, are inevitably affecting both the regional and global energy markets. Uncertainty is not good for economic markets, especially the energy sector. There have not yet been significant increases in oil prices, and natural gas prices have risen only marginally — but no major new deals are being made because the global energy market is waiting and watching, or showing “cautious nervousness.” This is mainly because there are still high quantities of gas available in the market. Europe has managed to overcome the lack of gas from Russia with supply from other sources (mainly liquified gas from the US and elsewhere), and European emergency stores are almost completely full.
Few have yet compared the current energy situation in the Middle East to the oil embargo surrounding the Yom Kippur War in 1973. A couple of weeks ago, the Iranian Minister of Energy called for a similar boycott at the gathering of the Islamic Conference in Saudi Arabia, but as expected, his call went unanswered.
With that said, the situation in the Eastern Mediterranean is complex. The Israeli Ministry of Energy’s October 9 instruction to Chevron to temporarily halt gas production in the Tamar field did not materially affect the local energy market. Chevron announced that it was able to compensate for the lack of gas from Tamar with other fields, both for the Israeli market and for the export markets in Egypt and Jordan. However, the situation could become more difficult as the fighting continues, especially if it escalates to include additional arenas.
It is important to keep an eye on this, especially with regard to the possible consequences for Egypt. Egypt is facing a shortage of natural gas for the local market that has led to power outages from time to time. Moreover, its dire economic situation necessitates the flow of gas from Israel — both for the domestic market and no less importantly for export in order to bring foreign currency into the depleted Egyptian treasury. Present estimations indicate a sharp decrease of gas export to Egypt of around 70%(!). This could have serious internal and regional political consequences. The angry reaction of President Sisi to what was interpreted as an Israeli attempt to evacuate Palestinians from the Gaza Strip into Sinai reflected his concern about both Egypt’s poor economic position and the strategic implications of the Gaza problem being pushed into Egypt’s front yard. A few days ago, fuel prices in Egypt increased by about 15%, but the government said it will not raise the price of basic products. Egypt’s worsening economic situation should be of considerable concern to the region and beyond.
An equally interesting arena is Lebanon. The drilling by the Total company in Block 9 did not yield positive results. Although no official announcement was made by the Lebanese Ministry of Energy, reports indicate that no gas was found. This is a fairly common result in the energy sector, as gas often fails to be found with the first drilling. But in view of Lebanon’s current economic and political circumstances, this is not good news. Reports indicate that the Lebanese government is trying to convince the relevant companies to drill in Block 8 to preserve “energy momentum”. In the present circumstances, with clashes between Hezbollah and Israel taking place, the energy angle is naturally being sidelined, but it will be very important later.
In the Cypriot arena, Chevron submitted an up-to-date action plan to the government regarding the Aphrodite gas field, including its intention to export the gas to Egypt. The government responded with reservations. The dispute has not yet been settled, though it probably will be in the next couple of months. The Israeli angle concerning this field is not clear (there is a dispute regarding the Israeli portion of this field), but when Chevron decides to proceed with Aphrodite, a means will likely be found to settle this angle as well.
In addition, the Italian company ENI is expected to drill in another field with positive potential in Cypriot waters at the beginning of next year.
There is uncertainty regarding the Turkish position on Cypriot energy potential. It should be expected that if Chevron takes practical steps in the Aphrodite field, Ankara will respond. Although the atmosphere between Turkey and Greece is improving, this is mainly on the bilateral level between those two countries. Cyprus is another matter. Intriguingly, however, the Turkish Foreign Minister made a statement in which he suggested finding a way to share the gas between Greek-Cypriots and Turkish-Cypriots even in the absence of a comprehensive solution to the Cyprus problem. Is this a serious idea? Will it be possible to motivate all the parties to take such a creative and pragmatic step? Time will tell, but clearly the Israeli-Lebanese maritime agreement has spurred some creativity about other conflicts in the region.
For the time being, the war in Gaza has not created too many waves in either the regional energy sector or the global one. However, the uncertainty will increase as the crisis continues, especially against the background of the ground operation in the Gaza Strip. Escalation in the Lebanese arena would further exacerbate the situation. It is important to stress that although there is no apparent shortage of natural gas in the world market, and although it is to be expected that Saudi Arabia and its Gulf partners will adopt a responsible policy in this regard concerning oil, ongoing instability could have a negative effect on the energy sector. Obviously, Washington is aware of this and is paying close attention. Israel needs to do the same because of the strategic implications for the region.
Interestingly enough, the Cypriot Energy Minister stated on November 8 that the war might provide an impetus to plans for a pipeline conveying offshore natural gas to Cyprus for processing and shipping to foreign markets. He added that energy cooperation between Israel and Turkey might have fallen by the wayside given Turkey’s increasingly harsh criticism of Israeli actions in Gaza. While it is too early to assess the implications of the war for Israel’s plans for another export option for its natural gas, lessons should be taken the day after.
Ambassador (ret.) Michael Harari joined the Israeli Foreign Ministry and served more than 30 years in a range of diplomatic roles in Israel and abroad, including (among others) in Cairo, London and Nicosia. His final position abroad was as Israeli Ambassador to Cyprus (2010-2015). Today he serves as a consultant in the fields of strategy, policy and energy and lectures in the Political Science Department at the Jezreel Valley College. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
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A pro-Israel rally at the University of Toronto was headlined by Columbia University professor Shai Davidai
Around 200 people gathered for a pro-Israel demonstration at University of Toronto’s downtown campus at King’s College Circle—which was the site of one of Canada’s largest pro-Palestinian encampments during May […]
The post A pro-Israel rally at the University of Toronto was headlined by Columbia University professor Shai Davidai appeared first on The Canadian Jewish News.
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‘Not Welcome’: New Pro-Hamas Campaign Aims to Abolish Hillel Campus Chapters
A statue of George Washington tied with a Palestinian flag and a keffiyeh inside a pro-Hamas encampment is pictured at George Washington University in Washington, DC, US, May 2, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Craig Hudson
The campus group National Students for Justice in Palestine (NSJP) is waging a campaign to gut Jewish life in academia, calling for the abolition of Hillel International campus chapters, the largest collegiate organization for Jewish students in the world.
“Over the past several decades, Hillel has monopolized for Jewish campus life into a pipeline for pro-Israel indoctrination, genocide-apologia, and material support to the Zionist project and its crimes,” a social media account operating the campaign, titled #DropHillel, said in a manifesto published last week. “Across the country, Hillel chapters have invited Israeli soldiers to their campuses; promoted propaganda trips such as birthright; and organized charity drives for the Israeli military.”
It continued, “Such actions reveal Hillel’s ideological and material investment in Zionism, despite the organization’s facade as being simply a ‘Jewish cultural space.’”
DropHillel claims to be “Jewish-led,” although only a small minority of Jews oppose Zionism, and the group has been linked to and promoted by Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP) chapters.
Hillel International has provided Jewish students a home away from home during the academic year. However, NSJP says it wants to “weaken” it and “dismantle oppression.”
The idea has already been picked up by pro-Hamas student groups at one college, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, according to The Daily Tar Heel, the school’s official student newspaper. On Oct. 9, it reported, a member of Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP) unveiled the idea for “no more Hillel” during a rally which, among other things, demanded removing Israel from UNC’s study abroad program and adopting the boycott, divestment, and sanctions (BDS) movement. Addressing the comments to the paper days later, SJP, which has been linked to Islamist terrorist organizations, proclaimed that shuttering Hillel is a coveted goal of the anti-Zionist movement.
“Zionism is a racist supremacist ideology advocating for the creation and sustenance of an ethnostate through the expulsion and annihilation of native people,” the group told the paper. “Therefore, any group that advocates for a supremacist ideology — be it the KKK, the Proud Boys, Hillel, or Heels for Israel — should not be welcome on campus.”
The #DropHillel campaign came amid an unprecedented surge in anti-Israel incidents on college campuses, which, according to a report published last month by the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), have reached crisis levels.
Revealing a “staggering” 477 percent increase in anti-Zionist activity involving assault, vandalism, and other phenomena, the report — titled “Anti-Israel Activism on US Campuses, 2023-2024” — painted a bleak picture of America’s higher education system poisoned by political extremism and hate.
“As the year progressed, Jewish students and Jewish groups on campus came under unrelenting scrutiny for any association, actual or perceived, with Israel or Zionism,” the report said. “This often led to the harassment of Jewish members of campus communities and vandalism of Jewish institutions. In some cases, it led to assault. These developments were underpinned by a steady stream of rhetoric from anti-Israel activists expressing explicit support for US-designated terrorists organizations, such as Hamas, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) and others.”
The report added that 10 campuses accounted for 16 percent of all incidents tracked by ADL researchers, with Columbia University and the University of Michigan combining for 90 anti-Israel incidents — 52 and 38, respectively. Harvard University, the University of California – Los Angeles, Rutgers University New Brunswick, Stanford University, Cornell University, and others filled out the rest of the top 10. Violence, it continued, was most common at universities in the state of California, where anti-Zionist activists punched a Jewish student for filming him at a protest.
Follow Dion J. Pierre @DionJPierre.
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‘Muslim for Trump’ Launches Initiatives in Key Battleground States, Says Candidate Will Bring ‘Peace’ to Gaza
Former US President Donald Trump is seen at a campaign event in South Carolina. Photo: Reuters/Sam Wolfe
The “Muslims for Trump” organization has officially launched initiatives to help elect Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump to the White House, arguing that he would be more likely to end the war in Gaza than Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris.
In a statement released on Monday, the group said it will focus on recruiting Muslim voters in key battleground states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. The organization both praised Trump for his supposed “peace-focused” approach to ending the war in Gaza and condemned Harris for helping facilitate a so-called “genocide.”
“After meeting with President Trump, it was clear to me he is the right leader for Muslims to get behind,” Rabiul Chowdhury, co-founder of Muslims for Trump and former co-chair of the “Abandon Harris Movement,” said in a statement.
Chowdhury added that during his discussions with Trump, the former president vowed to “ending the escalation of wars and bringing peace to war-torn regions.” In contrast to Trump’s promise to stop the “bloodshed” in Gaza, he claimed, Harris has “recklessly pushed us toward World War III.”
Chowdhury, a self-described “peace advocate,” urged the Muslim community not to fall victim to supposed “misinformation” campaigns by the media and Democrats that paint the former president as hostile to immigrants. He claimed that the former president’s focus is on “ending war, not dividing families through false immigration claims.”
Samra Luqman, chair of the Michigan chapter of Muslims for Trump, underscored the need to punish the Biden administration for what he described as supporting a “genocide” in Gaza.
“The goal of this election is to hold the Biden administration accountable for a genocide. No amount of fear mongering or scare tactics will persuade my community into forgiving the mutilation, live-burning, and genocide of over 200,000 people,” he said.
According to data produced by the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry, roughly 40,000 people have died in Gaza since the war began last October. Israel has said that its forces have killed about 20,000 Hamas terrorists during its military campaign.
Israel says it has gone to unprecedented lengths to try and avoid civilian casualties, noting its efforts to evacuate areas before it targets them and to warn residents of impending military operations with leaflets, text messages, and other forms of communication.
On the organization Muslims for Trump’s official website, it claims that the Abraham Accords, a series of historic, Trump administration-brokered normalization agreements between Israel and several countries in the Arab world, helped stabilize the Middle East. It also says that had Trump not lost the 2020 presidential race, the so-called “genocide” could have been prevented.
“Under Trump’s leadership, the Abraham Accords were brokered, fostering peaceful relations between Israel and several Arab countries. Supporters might argue that Trump’s diplomacy prioritized peace and stability in the Middle East, reducing the likelihood of large-scale conflicts like genocide,” the group wrote.
Over the course of his campaign, Trump has repeatedly touted his support for the Jewish state during his singular term in office. Trump has boasted about his administration’s work in fostering the Abraham Accords, promising to resume efforts to strengthen them if he were to win November’s US presidential election.
Harsh US sanctions levied on Iran under Trump crippled the Iranian economy and led its foreign exchange reserves to plummet. Trump and his Republican supporters in the US Congress have criticized the Biden administration for renewing billions of dollars in US sanctions waivers, which had the effect of unlocking frozen funds and allowing the country to access previously inaccessible hard currency.
Trump also recognized Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights, a strategic region on Israel’s northern border previously controlled by Syria, and also moved the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, recognizing the city as the Jewish state’s capital.
Despite Harris’s repeated efforts to woo Muslim voters, polling data indicates that the demographic has made a dramatic swing away from the Democratic Party. Polling data from the Arab American Institute reveals that Trump slightly edges Harris among Muslim voters by a margin of 42 to 41 percent. A report from the Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR) shows that Green Party candidate Jill Stein leads Harris and Trump with Muslim voters in the key swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona.
The post ‘Muslim for Trump’ Launches Initiatives in Key Battleground States, Says Candidate Will Bring ‘Peace’ to Gaza first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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