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Ukraine Is at War with Russia … and North Korea and Iran
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of a cultural forum dedicated to the 300th anniversary of the birth of the Turkmen poet and philosopher Magtymguly Fragi, in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, Oct. 11, 2024. Photo: Sputnik/Alexander Scherbak/Pool via REUTERS
JNS.org – Last week was clearly a week for making history. That observation isn’t primarily sparked by Donald Trump’s presidential election victory—he’s now the only commander-in-chief besides Grover Cleveland to win two non-consecutive terms at the helm of the world’s leading democracy—but to a much less reported event half a world away, whose consequences Trump will have to deal with when he takes office in January.
As the Pentagon has now confirmed, the North Korean regime has deployed up to 12,000 troops to fight alongside its Russian ally nearly three years after Moscow launched its brutal aggression against Ukraine. As Americans ventured to the polls on Tuesday to carve a piece of history, the North Koreans did the same in Russia’s Kursk salient, where they clashed with Ukrainian forces, marking the first time that an outside party has fired a shot in this war. As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pointed out, the very presence of North Korean forces marks a serious escalation that will generate a “new chapter of global instability.”
Time will tell whether the North Koreans will make a significant difference to the actual progress of the war. A story that did the rounds in recent days centered upon a captured Russian soldier caught on video claiming that his unit was accidentally fired on by the very same North Koreans supposed to be fighting alongside them, suggesting that Pyongyang has dispatched cannon fodder rather than crack troops. “We tried to explain to them where to aim, but I think they shot two of our own,” the soldier explained. “I decided it was better to surrender in this situation than to be killed by our own bullet.” That probably shouldn’t be surprising; while North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un has called his 1 million-man army “the strongest” in the world, none of the Hermit Kingdom’s soldiers have any meaningful combat experience.
The other aspect here is geopolitical—the coming together of two tyrannical regimes to crush the independence of a post-Communist democracy allied with the European Union and the United States. By choosing North Korea as his partner in war, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has signaled that no state is off-limits when it comes to seeking allies. For as bad and repressive as Russia is internally, North Korea is even worse; as I’ve written before, the “Democratic People’s Republic” is not so much an independent country as it is a concentration camp with a seat at the United Nations.
With his relations with Western nations at a nadir, Putin has become increasingly reliant on countries like China, Iran and North Korea for diplomatic and military support, as well as those states that are either existing or aspiring members of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) bloc of states, who present themselves as an alternative to the U.S.-dominated international institutions that emerged after World War II. Iran has supplied Russia with missiles and Shahed drones that have been used to devastating effect against Ukrainian cities and towns. In the case of North Korea, Putin and Kim signed a “comprehensive strategic partnership treaty” when the Russian leader visited Pyongyang in June that pledges both countries to come to the defense of the other in the event of an attack. For Moscow, the North Korean troops for the time being offer a practical alternative to recruiting yet more Russians to fight in a war that has already taken the lives of more than 700,000 of them, along with thousands of tanks and armored vehicles. For the North Koreans, assisting Russia will bring in much-needed cash into Kim’s coffers, as well as Russian know-how in the development of Pyongyang’s nuclear program.
What this means is that Ukraine isn’t just fighting Russia but also North Korea and Iran. The implications of this for Ukraine, as its civilians and armed forces face yet another freezing winter with dwindling supplies, are the gravest of all. But in the longer term, Ukraine’s ostensible allies will also bear the costs of this alignment of autocracies.
In the Middle East, the effects of Russia’s belligerent foreign policy have been manifest for more than a decade, given its aggressive backing of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime during the civil war in that country. Israel has had to tiptoe around the Russian presence in Syria as it has attempted to deal with Iran’s use of both Syria and Lebanon as a staging ground for its proxies’ attacks upon the Jewish state. Because of that, in the wake of the Ukraine invasion three years ago, Israel considered and then essentially rejected the proposal that it should actively back the democratic government in Kyiv with weapons and training. That prudence was understandable, but it has not curtailed the Russians, whose attitude to the Jewish state is increasingly returning to the demonizing approach witnessed during the Cold War as it cultivates terrorist groups from Hamas in Gaza to the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
For Putin, the war triggered by the Hamas atrocities in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023 has been a blessing. In terms of world attention, his war in Ukraine has been eclipsed by the fighting in the Middle East, with the grim result that the authentic genocide that Russia is waging against its southern neighbor has been largely ignored as patently false claims of Israeli genocide in Gaza have mushroomed. As we enter the lame duck phase of President Joe Biden’s administration, a fundamental reassessment is therefore necessary—specifically, understanding how the wars in Ukraine and on multiple fronts in the Middle East interact with each other, and at what points Western, Israeli and Ukrainian interests intersect and where they might diverge.
Ultimately, both Ukraine and Israel are fighting against the same set of enemies. At stake is not just their security—one might even say their very survival—but the values and policies embodied by both the NATO alliance and U.S. foreign policy. How America and its allies respond now will determine our stance towards this so-called “Axis of Resistance” for a generation.
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Trump Says Iran Must Give Up Dream of Nuclear Weapon or Face Harsh Response
Atomic symbol and USA and Iranian flags are seen in this illustration taken, September 8, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
President Donald Trump said on Monday he believes Iran is intentionally delaying a nuclear deal with the United States and that it must abandon any drive for a nuclear weapon or face a possible military strike on Tehran’s atomic facilities.
“I think they’re tapping us along,” Trump told reporters after US special envoy Steve Witkoff met in Oman on Saturday with a senior Iranian official.
Both Iran and the United States said on Saturday that they held “positive” and “constructive” talks in Oman. A second round is scheduled for Saturday, and a source briefed on the planning said the meeting was likely to be held in Rome.
The source, speaking to Reuters on the condition of anonymity, said the discussions are aimed at exploring what is possible, including a broad framework of what a potential deal would look like.
“Iran has to get rid of the concept of a nuclear weapon. They cannot have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said.
Asked if US options for a response include a military strike on Tehran’s nuclear facilities, Trump said: “Of course it does.”
Trump said the Iranians need to move fast to avoid a harsh response because “they’re fairly close” to developing a nuclear weapon.
The US and Iran held indirect talks during former President Joe Biden’s term but they made little, if any progress. The last known direct negotiations between the two governments were under then-President Barack Obama, who spearheaded the 2015 international nuclear deal that Trump later abandoned.
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No Breakthrough in Gaza Talks, Egyptian and Palestinian Sources Say
Families and supporters of Israeli hostages kidnapped during the deadly Oct. 7, 2023 attack by Hamas gather to demand a deal that will bring back all the hostages held in Gaza, outside a meeting between hostage representatives and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in Jerusalem, Jan. 14, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Ammar Awad
The latest round of talks in Cairo to restore the defunct Gaza ceasefire and free Israeli hostages ended with no apparent breakthrough, Palestinian and Egyptian sources said on Monday.
The sources said Hamas had stuck to its position that any agreement must lead to an end to the war in Gaza.
Israel, which restarted its military campaign in Gaza last month after a ceasefire agreed in January unraveled, has said it will not end the war until Hamas is stamped out. The terrorist group has ruled out any proposal that it lay down its arms.
But despite that fundamental disagreement, the sources said a Hamas delegation led by the group’s Gaza Chief Khalil Al-Hayya had shown some flexibility over how many hostages it could free in return for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel should a truce be extended.
An Egyptian source told Reuters the latest proposal to extend the truce would see Hamas free an increased number of hostages. Israeli minister Zeev Elkin, a member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s security cabinet, told Army Radio on Monday that Israel was seeking the release of around 10 hostages, raised from previous Hamas consent to free five.
Hamas has asked for more time to respond to the latest proposal, the Egyptian source said.
“Hamas has no problem, but it wants guarantees Israel agrees to begin the talks on the second phase of the ceasefire agreement” leading to an end to the war, the Egyptian source said.
AIRSTRIKES
Hamas terrorists freed 33 Israeli hostages in return for hundreds of Palestinian detainees during the six-week first phase of the ceasefire which began in January. But the second phase, which was meant to begin at the start of March and lead to the end of the war, was never launched.
Meanwhile, 59 Israeli hostages remain in the hands of the terrorists. Israel believes up to 24 of them are alive.
Palestinians say the wave of Israeli attacks since the collapse of the ceasefire has been among the deadliest and most intense of the war, hitting an exhausted population surviving in the enclave’s ruins.
In Jabalia, a community on Gaza’s northern edge, rescue workers in orange vests were trying to smash through concrete with a sledgehammer to recover bodies buried underneath a building that collapsed in an Israeli strike.
Feet and a hand of one person could be seen under a concrete slab. Men carried a body wrapped in a blanket. Workers at the scene said as many as 25 people had been killed.
The Israeli military said it had struck there against terrorists planning an ambush.
In Khan Younis in the south, a camp of makeshift tents had been shredded into piles of debris by an airstrike. Families had returned to poke through the rubbish in search of belongings.
“We used to live in houses. They were destroyed. Now, our tents have been destroyed too. We don’t know where to stay,” said Ismail al-Raqab, who returned to the area after his family fled the raid before dawn.
EGYPT’S SISI MEETS QATARI EMIR
The leaders of the two Arab countries that have led the ceasefire mediation efforts, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, met in Doha on Sunday. The Egyptian source said Sisi had called for additional international guarantees for a truce agreement, beyond those provided by Egypt and Qatar themselves.
US President Donald Trump, who has backed Israel’s decision to resume its campaign and called for the Palestinian population of Gaza to leave the territory, said last week that progress was being made in returning the hostages.
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Iranian Foreign Minister to Visit Moscow Ahead of Second Iran-US Meeting
FILE PHOTO: Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi speaks as he meets with his Iraqi counterpart Fuad Hussein, in Baghdad, Iraq October 13, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ahmed Saad/File Photo
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi will visit Russia this week ahead of a planned second round of talks between Tehran and Washington aimed at resolving Iran’s decades-long nuclear stand-off with the West.
Araqchi and US President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff held talks in Oman on Saturday, during which Omani envoy Badr al-Busaidi shuttled between the two delegations sitting in different rooms at his palace in Muscat.
Both sides described the talks in Oman as “positive,” although a senior Iranian official told Reuters the meeting “was only aimed at setting the terms of possible future negotiations.”
Italian news agency ANSA reported that Italy had agreed to host the talks’ second round, and Iraq’s state news agency said Araqchi told his Iraqi counterpart that talks would be held “soon” in the Italian capital under Omani mediation.
Tehran has approached the talks warily, doubting the likelihood of an agreement and suspicious of Trump, who has threatened to bomb Iran if there is no deal.
Washington aims to halt Tehran’s sensitive uranium enrichment work – regarded by the United States, Israel and European powers as a path to nuclear weapons. Iran says its nuclear program is solely for civilian energy production.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Araqchi will “discuss the latest developments related to the Muscat talks” with Russian officials.
Moscow, a party to Iran’s 2015 nuclear pact, has supported Tehran’s right to have a civilian nuclear program.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say on vital state matters, distrusts the United States, and Trump in particular.
But Khamenei has been forced to engage with Washington in search of a nuclear deal due to fears that public anger at home over economic hardship could erupt into mass protests and endanger the existence of the clerical establishment, four Iranian officials told Reuters in March.
Tehran’s concerns were exacerbated by Trump’s speedy revival of his “maximum pressure” campaign when he returned to the White House in January.
During his first term, Trump ditched Tehran’s 2015 nuclear pact with six world powers in 2018 and reimposed crippling sanctions on the Islamic regime.
Since 2019, Iran has far surpassed the 2015 deal’s limits on uranium enrichment, producing stocks at a high level of fissile purity, well above what Western powers say is justifiable for a civilian energy program and close to that required for nuclear warheads.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has raised the alarm regarding Iran’s growing stock of 60% enriched uranium, and reported no real progress on resolving long-running issues, including the unexplained presence of uranium traces at undeclared sites.
IAEA head Rafael Grossi will visit Tehran on Wednesday, Iranian media reported, in an attempt to narrow gaps between Tehran and the agency over unresolved issues.
“Continued engagement and cooperation with the agency is essential at a time when diplomatic solutions are urgently needed,” Grossi said on X on Monday.
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